Cheltenham Festival Preview, Supreme Novices Hurdle

Day one race one!

So after all the talk, all the debating about which horse should go where. The Festival begins on Tuesday with The Supreme and I can’t wait. What a race to start with too. 

As per usual we have the Willie Mullins hot pot in Getabird, supposedly the best chance of a winner for the Ricci’s. Unbeaten in four runs he has looked good in his races, no more so than last time out when slamming the re opposing Mengli Khan by nine lengths in the Moscow Flyer at Punchestown. Given his form on soft and heavy ground and the fact he hasn’t been stopping at the end of his races there is little doubt he will be bang there as they charge up the hill. Will Getabird’s change of gear take him away from his rivals and enable him join the list of past winners for team Mullins. There are currently two other Mullins inmates still entered but expect both Next Destination and Laurina to take up alternative options in the week.

I’m a really big fan of Kalashnikov and have backed him in his previous two races, I’m hoping he continues to impress as I’ve already backed him each way at bigger odds. His last race in the Betfair was impressive beating a decent field of 24 by four and a half lengths and more. He looked like he had improved again from Sandown and I’m sure there is more to come. There will be no ground concerns whether it be very soft or good ground. This would be a fantastic result for the small Amy Murphy stable against the big guns. The latest reports coming out are that his work has been very good and all the signs are there for a big run.

If you like me fancy the chances of Kalashnikov then the value bet of the race could well be Summerville Boy. He has previous course form having run twice at Cheltenham before, the first time he went down by under a length to Slate House. What does make you take notice is the Sandown run back in January in The Tolworth. On that day he beat Kalashnikov by four lengths going away at the end on testing ground. At double the price he could be too big at around 10/1 and can definitely see him figuring in the finish.

Mengli Khan is another who could be too big a price, yes he was firmly put in his place by Getabird last time but with the exception of the time before when he ran out he had looked good and was very much on the upgrade. There are different opinions on that last performance, was he below par or was he just firmly beaten by a better horse. We don’t know that answer for sure but we will find out soon enough. For me I’d give him another chance before writing him off and with Gordon Elliott as his trainer you would be foolish to think there isn’t a better performance in him than last time.

Scarlet Dragon is interesting all the way down the market at 20/1, having had only one run over hurdles. A very good performer on the flat there is every chance he could develop into a decent hurdler, but is it too late for this years Festival. His first and only run wasn’t until February in the Dovecote at Kempton, finishing a creditable second to run away winner Global Citizen. I would like to think there is a good bit of improvement to come but suspect this race might be too soon. There is no doubting he has class for that price.
Paloma Blue and Claimantakinforgan are good horses in their own right but see this as to hot for them to be winning. The other at a price I like is a Kim Bailey’s First Flow, he will have to step up again but that is totally possible. His last two runs have produced a twenty length handicap win, followed by a ten length romp in the Grade two Supreme trial at Haydock.

My prediction
1. Kalashnikov
2. Getabird
3. Summerville Boy
4. First Flow