Day one, The Arkle
I love nothing better in national hunt racing than a classy two mile chase. The speed they go at and the way horses go attacking fences is a sight to see. I think this Arkle could be one of the best line ups I can remember, there are at least half a dozen that are really top class and could probably win an ordinary renewal. We have the 3rd, 4th, 6th and 8th from last years Champion hurdle all locking horns again, but I don't think they will finish in the same order as last year.
Petit Mouchoir finished third in that Champion last year, since that run he has only run twice both this year over fences. The first was a routine win in a beginners chase, but there were a few mistakes with his jumping that would ask serious questions when he gets to Cheltenham. Any mistakes he makes on the day and against this field would seriously dent his chances. The Irish Arkle was next where again there were mistakes and he finished well held in second to Footpad. I cannot see him reversing that form at all and think he is running for a place at best.
Footpad is a worthy favourite. As above he holds Petit Mouchoir on their last run and expect him to confirm that form. A classy hurdler he has gone to new heights over fences and looks a natural. His jumping is superb and that can make so much difference at the pace they go in Championship races. He has form at the venue and I don't see any weaknesses, even at short odds in a strong field he looks the likeliest winner.
Sceau Royal Was another member of that Champion coming in 6th, like Footpad he has become better with a fence. Owned by the same connections as Footpad, they must think he has a good chance by letting him take his chance rather than finding an alternative assignment. Having had five runs over fences, that will also prove invaluable come race day. He has been impressive in his races and would have to think he will figure in the finish.
Saint Calvados has run three times over fences this year and is still unbeaten. He has looked more impressive every time he has run, and with only seven career races there should be a lot more to come. I know some will say his form isn't up to much compared to some of his opponents, last time he was very impressive routing the second by 22 lengths and North Hill Harvey a further 17 back in third. There were also questions about him on what would normally be good Spring ground, however that would appear to not be a worry as we anticipate soft going on the first day. Could be loads to come but at the moment he isn't going to finish in front of everyone.
Brain Power was the last member of the Champion cast from last year. His form is a little hit and miss this season, his last two efforts showing a fall and unseated rider. He has a bit to find with his conquerors from last year, no doubt there is potential however I see safer options out there.
Invitation Only has some good bits of form, but he will be Willie Mullins second string and won't be in the first three. North Hill Harvey I had high hopes for after he beat Sceau Royal at Cheltenham but he has disappointed since, Maybe he would be better on better ground and as he won't get it he misses out.
Prediction and odds.
1. Footpad 5/4
2. Sceau Royal 7/1
3. Saint Calvados 11/2
With no Sceau Royal now, Petit Mouchoir takes 3rd.
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