Punchestown Day Two

Not the best day yesterday but we go again. Small stakles the order of the day as this meeting continues to be unpredictable.

15:40
A big field handicap so looking for some value. Steel Wave is near the bottom of the weights for Willie Mullins ans as seen yesterday none of his can be ruled out. 16/1 is fair and might make the frame with 6 places available.
Steel Wave 1pt ew 16/1

16:20
Pravalaguna is second favourite behind Sire Du Berlais and they could well fight out the finish. Good Thyne Tara finished just behind Pravalaguna three starts back and last time out was 5th behind Samcro in a grade 3 at Navan. She is three times the price at 9/1 and gets the mares allowance from the boys.
Good Thyne Tara 1pt ew 9/1

16:55
Having finished third to Samcro at Cheltenham and with Black Op going on to win at Aintree Next Destinations form is rock solid. He is rightly favourite and could well win easily. Colin Tizzard should have an idea of what is needed from a form line with Vision Des Flos, who was just behind Next Destination at the festival. Kilbricken Storm was a good winner of the Albert Bartlett, Santini has boosted the form going on to win the grade one Sefton at Aintree with Tower Bridge in third who was 5th in the Ballymore. Guarenteed to stay the three mile trip having won three times at the distance I think he will outstay the Mullins favourite.
Kilbricken Storm 2pts win 7/2

17:30
This looks a bit of a puzzle to me. Road to Respect probably has the best form but is too short at 9/4. Bellshill ran a cracker in the Irish National. Killultagh Vic and Total Recall looked to be well on the upgrade but recent runs leave them with more questions than answers. Djakadam hasn't had a good season and his best days could be behind him. Edwulf and Outlander are not ones to rely on but could outrun their odds if on a going day. Going to have a real punt on Alpha Des Obeaux at 50/1 he could run into a place if turning up in the right frame of mind and that would pay 10/1 a place. A watching race for me.
Alpha Des Obeaux 0.5 pts ew 50/1

18:05
I'm not sure why Relegate isn't favourite ahead of Blackbow. She beat that rival fair and square and don't see why that form should be reversed. This still looks wide open even with Relegate being three from three and winning the big one at Cheltenham. Tornado Flyer ran well in that race and did well to finish close up after pulling hard most of the way. Carefully Selected finished second in that Champion Bumper and the booking of Derek O'Connor is a positive. I will go for Getaway John, he was beaten a head by Tornado Flyer but has won twice since. Last time out winning just under three lengths with a massive 24 lengths back to the third. Dorking Boy needs to be watched as his yard could not be in any better form.
Getaway John 1pt ew 12/1

18:40
Shanahans's Turn looks to have a good chance after his second to Ultragold at Aintree. Its interesting to see Harry Cobden travels over for the Tizzard rides. Blast of Koeman could  well run into a place with 5 on offer at around 8/1.
Shanahans's Turn 2pts ew 6/1

Punchestown Day One

16:20
Sharjah should run a nice race at a decent price, but this looks between the front three in the betting to me. Getabird was as disappointing at Cheltenham as he was impressive at Fairyhouse. Thoughts are he doesn't like going left handed so I expect him to continue winning ways. Mengli Khan and Paloma Blue should follow him home.
Getabird 3 pts win 11/10

16:55
Joey Sasa looks like a solid option at around 9/1 with six places available for each way backers. A winner by four lengths in a flat maiden last time out he comes in good form. Western Boy is also a nice price and won this last year, he will like the better ground and has a chance. However it's one of his owners other representatives the one for me in Top Ten, he finished third to Sharjah on debut. He followed that up by winning a 16 runner maiden, the first two finished 18 lengths clear of the third and could have any amount of improvement.
Top Ten 1.5 pts ew 8/1

17:30
What a race in store here. I think the drop to two miles on softish ground won't inconvenience Un De Sceaux and he rates a danger. That would have to bring in Doctor Phoenix who looked threatening to Un De Sceaux last time out before falling when set to lay down his challenge. Min ran a super race to serve it up to Altior at Cheltenham before failing by 7 lengths. I was a little disappointed he didn't go on and win at Aintree, but maybe that Cheltenham race just took a bit out of him. On that evidence Douvan is the bet, having had a frustrating season where he didn't make an appearance until the Champion Chase. He was tanking along in front that day and was jumping well until the fourth last where he didn't and came down. That race would have blown the cobwebs away and expect him to be in A1 shape today. He will be much the freshest and that my also aid him at the end of this season where the others have been slogging through the horrid winter ground.
Douvan 3 pts win Evens

18:40
Monalee is a worthy favourite for this three mile Novice Chase, having followed home the mightily impressive Presenting Percy in the RSA. There is nothing of that calibre in this race so has a favourites chance. However 15/8 seems short as he isn't a guaranteed stayer over three miles. Al Boum Photo was quite impressive last time out winning the Ryanair Gold Cup at Fairyhouse, beating Shattered Love by a length over 2 1/2 miles. I will take Shattered Love to reverse the form over this longer distance, he hasn't been out of the first two this year and has grade one winning form over 3 miles. He is also two points bigger at 7/1 and is excellent each way value. Rathvinden won the National Hunt Chase and will definitely be staying on in this, he will be hoping they don't go to quick and he could run into a place.
Shattered Love 2 pts ew 7/1

Saturday selections

Ayr Selections 

1:45, Double W’s (1pt ew 8/1)

2:20, Branqueur D’Or (2 pts ew 8/1)

2:55, Beyond The Clouds (2 pts ew 15/2)

3:30, Mia’s Storm (2 pts win 6/4)

4:05, Doing Fine (1.5 pts ew 11/1)

Glencairn View 1pt ew 16/1)

4:40 Burbank (1pt ew 7/1)

Newbury Selections

2:00, Defoe (3 pts win evens)

2:35, Gavota (2 pts win 6/4)

3:10, Expert Eye (2 pts win 5/4)

3:45, Taqdeer (1.5 pts ew 10/1)

Aintree Saturday Selections

Friday Tips

1:45 

Debece (1.5 pts ew 10/1)

Mr Big Shot (1 pt ew 10/1)

2:25 

On The Blind Side (3pts win 7/4)

3:00

Lady Buttons (1 pt ew 15/2)

3:40

Thomas Patrick (2pts ew 5/1)

Viconte Du Noyer (1 pt ew 25/1)

4:20

The Worlds End (1 pt ew 8/1)

5:15

The Dutchman (1 pt ew 25/1)

I Just Know (1 pt ew 22/1)

Maggio (1 pt ew 100/1)

6:20

William Of Orange (1 pt ew 10/1)

Not That Fuisse (1 pt ew 16/1)

Aintree Friday Selections

Friday Value Selections

1:45
Storm Home (1 pt ew 16/1)
Trainer has a fine record at the course, a big price in an open race. Won his last two and possible still have more to come.

2:20
Vision Des Flos (1.5 pts ew 7/1)
The Ballymore at Cheltenham could turn out to be a very good race, Colin Tizzard's charge finished a creditable 6th.

2:50
Elegant Escape (2 pts ew 6/1)
Third to Presenting Percy and Monalee in the RSA looks cracking form, must have a great chance at the prices.

3:25
Balko Des Flos ( 3 pts win 9/4)
Defeat of Un De Sceau was convincing. Must go close if taking his chance.

4:05
Art Mauresque (1 pt ew 20/1)
Fourth in Grade 1 last time out, race before he was eight lengths second to Waiting Patiently. Big Price.

4:40
Uppertown Prince (0.5 pts ew)
Henderson has all the favourites, at a big price looking for some place money, finished in the first two in all four races this year.

5:15
Mister Fisher (2 pts ew 9/2)
A cracking bumper to end the day, both the top two look very interesting but going with Henderson's at the bigger odds.

Aintree Thursday Selections

Value selections for Thursday

1:45
Cyrname 10/3 (2 pts win)
Skipped Cheltenham, comes here fresh and form of Sandown Grade 1 second franked since.

2:20
Nube Negra 9/1 (1.5 pts ew)
Ran well at Cheltenham last time, may well improve for that and the flat track might suit.

2:50
Clan Des Obeaux 14/1 ew (1pt ew)
Might Bite hard to beat but this race often throws up shocks, at his price worth a chance.

3:25
My Tent Or Yours 9/2 (3 pts ew)
Missed Cheltenham last minute, form figures of 2122 here sure to run his race again with no Champion Hurdler this year to beat.

4:05
Grand Vision 9/2 (3 pts win)
Ran well at the Festival, Jamie Codd booked to ride is a big plus and points to a big run.

4:40
Gino Trail 12/1 (1.5 pts ew)
Cracking front running effort at Cheltenham, is as consistent as they come. Looks a big price to finish in the placings

5:15
Duhallow Gesture 10/1 (1.5 pts ew)
Won a listed bumper at Huntingdon, trainer has done well with his string this year, could be a nice price to finish in the frame.

Grand National Early Selections

As we get closer to the big day I have two early selections I think will be good value come race time.

First off looking at the two at the head of the betting, Total Recall and Anibale Fly are no doubt two of the classier runners. Both ran well in the Gold Cup with differing outcomes, Total Recall was running a nice ran and still was to be asked every question when coming down three out. Unlikely to have challenged the first two it was definitely a run full of promise in his first top level race. Here he reverts back to a grade 3 handicap with a nice weight having been very progressive in handicaps prior to the big race. The Ladbrokes Trophy (formerly the Hennessy) is also A very good trail for the National and he won that race well. Anibale Fly looked to be a little outpaced through the Gold Cup, but more importantly stayed on really well at the end to take third. There is no better trial than the Gold Cup and how he finished over three miles two bodes well for Aintree’s stamina test. Both are short enough at around 10/1 but given there profiles coming into this that could be real value. Others at the top of the market have questions to answer for me, does Black Lion truly stay the trip and Tiger Roll likes to run through the odd fence which wouldn’t be ideal around here.

Two runners I like are Colin Tizzard’s The Dutchman and Captain Redbeard from Stuart Coltherd’s yard. They tie in close together from the Peter Marsh at Haydock, a grade 2 just over three miles on heavy ground. That looks really solid form on both accounts, and Captain Redbeard has a 8lb swing at the weights for a thirteen length beating.
It was slightly disappointing The Dutchman was pulled up in the National trial at Haydock, but the ground there was desperate and only three finished at distances. Captain Redbeard won next time out over hurdles, with the second 35 lengths clear of the third. At their ages (8&9) and their racing weights 10-10 (The Dutchman) and 10-6 (Redbeard) everything looks ideal for big runs. Currently both available around 28/1 they look good value with 6 places paid out on each way bets.

Sunday Football Selections

Sunday football bets.

Banker bet

Arsenal 8/15

Valencia 4/9

Inter Milan Eve

Shrewsbury 6/5

Lazio 8/11

Five fold Acca pays 15/1

Outside treble 

Girona 3/1

Cagliari 11/10

Bologna 3/1

Treble pay 25/1

Both teams to score 

Nice v Rennes 8/11

Metz v Lyon 4/7

Marseille v Montpellier 4/6

Milan v Sassuolo Eve

Torino v Inter Milan 8/13

Eintracht Frankfurt v Hoffenheim 4/7

Six fold acca pays 22/1

Aintree Festival Day One Value Hunt

Grand National week is here with the big race on Saturday, but before we get there I have picked out some value selections for the first day. A little like Cheltenham some horses will have multiple entries, so with bookies not yet going non runner no bet we take a chance on the selections actually running in the races. However you could get some value early doors so bet at your own risk.

On Thursday at 2:20 there is the Juvenile Hurdle over two miles. Apple's Shakira is entered and is favourite ante post, she will be on a recovery mission after pulling like a train at Cheltenham. She stayed on well to finish fourth and will be a massive threat if she settles better. Redicean opposes again from that Triumph Hurdle and there is every possibility this flat track may suit him better. We Have A Dream missed Cheltenham and will come here a fresh horse, quietly fancied for the Triumph he would be my idea of the winner. We go for some value though and that looks like Nube Negra, he ran well in the Fred Winter and he may come on for that race. He travelled well and I see more progress with more racing. At 10/1 I hope he can run to a place at least but it will be a tough ask to win possibly. Malaya is a very consistent filly and has finished in the first two places in her last 8 races. This might be a little hot for her but so she should run a good race again.

In the Betway Bowl Might Bite will be a warm order, and as long as he is over his Gold Cup exertions he should win easily. Bristol De Mai is back from a break having not raced since disappointing in January. Soft ground will be in his favour as he needs it, but I still can't have him at any price after his last two runs. Definitely Red will be a popular bet for the locals and his connections, he has a lot on his plate to reverse placings with Might Bite from Cheltenham where he was beaten a distance. Double Shuffle runs well here and this is usually his time of year, however it is usually with better ground that suits him here. He could still outrun his price and place at 14/1. Clan Des Obeaux is another one of Paul Nicholls' consistent performers, finishing first or second in three runs this year. The value in the race if he turns up will be Balko Des Flos, he has the profile of an improver and no more so then winning the Ryanair beating Un De Sceaux. Henry De Bromhead has brought a large string over and 13/2 would be a big price if he does run.

Buveur D'Air is a short price for the Aintree Hurdle and as the double winner of the champion hurdle he deserves to be odds on. He had hard race last time to hold Melon by a neck and that may have taken a lot out of him and this race comes soon enough. L'Ami Serge and The New One are quality horses in there own right but have little chance of beating the hot pot. I think old boy My Tent Or Yours should run a cracking race having missed the Champion Hurdle at the last minute, he could well give his owner two live chances.  At 40/1 Old Guard is a big price, he will come here without having had a hard race recently unlike most of the others. That break will of done him good and with freshness on his side he could run a big race. I really think some of the others may struggle with those hard races at the Festival in March especially if the ground is soft or heavy.

In the Foxhunters at 4:05 I like the chances of Grand Vision. Sixth in the corresponding race at the Festival he isn't a big price but some value at 6/1. His form figures of 121 before Cheltenham show he is very consistent and I'd be amazed if he finished outside the places.

In the Red Rum Handicap at 4:40 Le Prezien bids to follow up his win in the Grand Annual. He finally put it all together when storming home in March and fully justifies being head of the betting. He is not one to put your house on though so he has to be taken on. I expect Diego Du Charmil has a good opportunity here, he was going well when coming down at Ascot last time. He is a consistent performer and 8/1 is a fair price and could see him running a place. I was with King's Socks at Cheltenham and thought he ran a solid race without looking likely to win. With another low weight at 10-9 I will probably get involved again and this only being his third run in Britain he might have some more improvement. I Have to be with Gino Trail this time. He finished second to Le Prezien in the Grand Annual giving him 2lbs, this time he gets four pounds. A six pound swing for four and a half lengths brings him right into the mix. He is double the price at 12/1 and that seems massive to me, Kerry Lee has her horses in good order and he is a model of consistency with form figures of 311212. I cannot see him out of the first four, with usual pilot Jamie Moore already booked.

Saturday football acca

My five selections for Saturday

Schalke 19/20
Maritmo 12/5
Sporting Braga 3/5
Kilmarnock 23/20
Hibernian eve

43/1 five fold

Add Betis at 5/4 for 99/1

Saturday tips

Saturday looks like a challenging day tipping wise. So just concentrating on small stakes and look for some value bets from a few cards.

Kelso 

2:25 Taxmeifyoucan 5/2 Nap

3:00 Seldom Inn 10/1 ew

3:35 Kris Spin 13/2 ew

16:10 Oak Vintage 4/1

Kempton 

2:05 Jumira Bridge 5/1 

2:40 Mazzini 9/2

3:15 Smart Call 3/1

Uttoxeter

3:05 Sackett 9/4

3:40 Allysson Monterg 9/4 

Monday Tips

Fairyhouse 

2:10 

Quamino e/w 13/2

2:45

Sayar e/w 8/1

3:15

Bargy Lady e/w 9/1

3:50

Coquin Mans each way 9/2

4:25

Doctor Phoenix e/w 13/2 

5:00

Bellshill e/w 10/1

Monbeg Notorious e/w 10/1

Oscar Knight e/w 16/1

5:45

Out Sam e/w 5/1

Fairyhouse On Monday

Yesterday was disappointing, hoping Monday will be better. Just concentrating on the Fairyhouse meeting where the card is good and has value all the way through.

The opening race is a competitive affair shown by 6/1 the field. Manager Et Trotter won his maiden last time out and that looks good now, Whisperinthebreeze also won a maiden last time out and looks a progressive sort for Jessica Harrington. Pete So High and Icario have to be seriously considered for Gordon Richards although I would be slightly put off the former with top weight. At 13/2 I like the chances of Quamino, Paul Nolan has his string in good form and he carries only 10st 6ibs which can only aid his chances with soft to heavy ground. He comes here in form having won at Wexford last time out, the second that day was a previous handicap winner so his form looks solid.

Quamino each way 13/2

The second on the card is the grade 2 novice hurdle over two miles. Supreme novices favourite Getabird returns after disappointing at Cheltenham where he pulled like a train and finished well out of it. There is no doubt he is a class horse and if he settles better he could win this easily, but at 5/4 he is too short after what happened last month and I will look elsewhere. Sharjah also reappears from the Supreme where he finished in midfield, he too is classy individual however could he be in the field to ensure a good pace for his stable mate owned by the same connections. If not expect him to go well and the Ricci's aren't afraid to put there own against each other. Sayar could be very interesting also from the Mullins yard, a winner of his maiden by 16 lengths he then went onto win a grade 3  quite comfortably. At 8/1 he looks very interesting not having had the hard races some of these did at the festival. Having only had two races there could be a lot more to come from the son of classy flat horse Azamour. Hardline is very consistent and shoiuldn't be far away, never having been out of the first three since last January. From Gordon Elliott's powerful yard with Davy Russell on board expect him to be there at the finish, although he has had quite a long season. A bigger danger from that stable could be Veneer Of Charm, a good winner of the Fred Winter he could still have a fair bit of improvement in him. I suspect Getabird could win if setting well as he is very highly regarded but will look for value.

Sayar each way 8/1

3:15 handicap hurdle. is a tricky handicap and only small staked to be played. Space Cadet is a model of consistency in handicap chases and runs here off a much lower mark so will be of obvious interest. Bargy Lady hasn't run for a year and has a nice racing weight of 10st 10lbs for Mullins and Townend, as we saw with Penhill in the Stayer's Hurdle that doesn't mean they can't win. Shannak likes this course and often runs well here and comes in form with a nice second last time out. Stand Up And Fight is the choice of Barry Geraghty so looks the pick of the McManus horses. Moonshine Boy could run well at a big price, he was pulled up last time but was found to be coughing so I put a line through that race. Two for me each way as bookies paying 5 places.

Bargy Lady each way 9/1 

Moonshine Boy 16/1 

The 3:50 Grade 2 over two and a half miles comes next.  Coquin Mans starts favourite and has looked good this year. Last time he possibly would have won before slipping up when leading, even more noteworthy is the race previous where he finished four and a half lengths back of Melon and in front of Mick Jazz. Those two filled the places behind Buvuer D'air in the Champion. Currently 4/1 might look great value if he runs to that level again. Jezki will run his race but is not getting any younger and Identity Thief ran well in the Champion Hurdle, this extra half mile looks likely to suit him too. Diamond Cauchois could be a lively outsider at 8/1. I will side with the younger horse though.

Coquin Mans each way 4/1

The Devenish Chase is a grade 2 chase over two and a half. Un De Sceaux looks to get back to winning ways after his surprising defeat at Cheltenham. He lost nothing in defeat to a better horse on the day and would be hard to oppose here, although there are still people questioning if he really stays the trip on really soft ground. Coney Island possibly had top targets to aim at before running no race in the Ascot Chase. He would be best watched in this for me. Of more interest would be Doctor Phoenix who has looked better for the switch to Gordon Elliott and at the prices is the value after running Great Field close last time out. I suspect Un De Sceaux wins as I don't see anything in here of the calibre of Balko Des Flos, but no price at odds on.

Doctor Phoenix each way 13/2. 

Then its Grand National time. As open as ever and with chances a plenty you suspect. Mall Dini ran a blinder at Cheltenham with only the immovable object Missed Approach to strong for him that day. That was over a mile and quarter so looks likely to relish this test. He also has a nice weight to carry as does Pairofbrowneyes. Last time out winning the Leinster National he would go close if he stays the distance. Bellshill is a classy animal and a previous grade one winner. He is far from experienced over fences but neither was Our Duke last year. He would have to be a danger to all also having won just over 3 miles over hurdles. Monbeg Notorious is another who has to be taken very seriously, he has looked really good this year and keeps improving, owned by Gigginstown he would have been aimed at this. Oscar Knight was fancied for this last year but never got to the business end, he made a very satisfactory return when following home Total Recall on his return. Three selections for six places.

Bellshill each way 10/1

Monbeg Notorious 10/1

Oscar Knight 16/1

In the 5:45 I like Out Sam, having backed him a few times this year I can't desert him now and hope this is his time to get his head in front. Last time out he didn't stay and the drop back in trip might be in his favour this time. There look to be quite a few dangers headed by Poormans Hill Oscar Lantern and Close Shave. I'll stay loyal though and at the prices he is value each way.

Out Sam each way 7/1 

Each way lucky 15

Coquin Mans 4/1

Sayar 8/1

Bargy Lady 9/1

Monbeg Notorious 10/1 

Sunday Picks

After four winners and two place choices from Dubai yesterday, we go on the hunt for winners today.

Starting at Cork with Lareena in 4:05. Willie Mullins charge makes her handicap debut today on a fair mark, getting over a stone from joint favourite Spades Are Trumps. Carrying just 1-2 she must have a cracking chance. Mala Beach is out again quickly after winning two weeks ago and should win the 3:30 if fully recovered from that race. I like Brelade in the 4:40, he was travelling well in the County at Cheltenham before fading on the run in. He has a bit to find with Bleu Et Rouge but at the prices he is the value.

Ffos Las has a decent card and in the first at 2:25 I like Filatore, he has course form and is off a lightweight which on this ground will help. Never Equalled runs in the 4:00 and hopefully he can win and bring up a nice double for Bernard Llewellyn. Bob Ford looks a good bet in the 4:35 and the money has come in this morning, backed in from 8/1 to 4/1. As each way alternative I like Cailleach Annie at 6/1, a winner last time out and off a featherweight she could go close. Not much of a betting angle but Burrows Edge should win the 2:55 for Nicky Henderson and James Bowen.

Fairyhouse has a cracking card, starting with the opener a maiden hurdle over two miles. Savannah Storm should be hard to beat, but Joseph O'Brien has two chances against the favourite with Uisce Beathea looking to be the number one chance for the stable. Raced only once he finished second to a decent sort who has run well since. This son of Yeats could turn over the odds on shot. In the 2:20 I will be on Call A Cab the mount of Mark Walsh. He looks a nice progressive type and will like the step up in trip and 5/1 is a fair price. Laurina must be the banker of the day after her Cheltenham romp, She won with so much in hand in that grade 2 you can't see her adding this grade one to her tally. Lackaneen Leader could be one for the forecast and it is interesting that Emma Lavelle sends Woolstone One over from England. In the novice hurdle at 3:20 Scarpeta is my pick, I thought he ran a nice race behind Samcro at the festival. Duc Des Genievres ran one place behind his stable mate in that race and Paul Townend and Danny Mullins keep their respected rides I think they will finish in the same order. In the 3:55 I'm going for some value and picking Gordon Elliott's Robin Des Mana, he is very consistent bar last time out and around 12/1 he represents value under Davy Russell. Shattered Love could well continue his excellent run of form and make it a four timer in the Ryanair Gold Cup. Already a double grade one winner he should be favourite but isn't any value at 5/4. The Storyteller deserves the step up to grade one company after his win at Cheltenham but I'll take a chance on Invitation Only. Sizing Pottsie desrves to be favourite for the last after winning first time out . Again looking for some value though and going for Yukon Lil, very nicely bred and around 6/1 represents nice value in an open race.