Day two, Stayers Hurdle.
Day three and it’s the turn of the best staying hurdlers. As there are still a number of horses entered that probably won’t run we can rule a few of them out to start with. Even though she sits at the top of many bookmakers lists, Gordon Elliott has stated Apples Jade will go to the Mares Hurdle. Faugheen is also up there but as expected will run on Tuesday hoping to regain his Champion Hurdle crown.
Topping the betting is Yanworth, slightly surprising to see him reverting back to hurdles after starting the year chasing. He hasn’t done a lot wrong novice chasing, tipping up once but also finishing behind then in front of Willoughby Court. How good that form may be is still questionable for me and I will be against him coming out on top. Sam Spinner is the up and coming potential star. At the beginning of the year he wouldn't have been in many peoples thoughts as a possible winner of the Stayers. A steady start finishing a sound second to race fit rival Court Minstrel in a Chepstow grade two in October. Some of those in behind included Wholestone and Old Guard, who have both gone on to boost the form by winning grade two events. In November he firmly put his name on the map when he hosed up in the Betfair Stayers Handicap Hurdle, beating The Dutchman 17 lengths giving him weight. That was followed by another impressive display when beating L'Ami Serge and Uknowhatimeanharry 2 1/4 and 8 lengths respectively at Ascot. There is no doubt there is untapped potential there and he could be seriously good, my two slight negatives would be he hasn't run since that Ascot race in December and hasn't run at Cheltenham before. To counter one argument it could be said after 3 races in as many months he needed a short break and his planning is spot on, the other we will see on the day.
The aforementioned L'Ami Serge is a solid performer but for me he has slightly under performed this year and looks held by Sam Spinner. What I would say in his favour is his Cheltenham form is absolutely rock solid and if he continues that trend I wouldn't be surprised to see him run a big race but don't see him winning. And what of the old warrior The New One, how does he fit in to this field. Well there is no questioning the attitude and resilience of one of the most popular horses in training. Nigel Twiston-Davies knows what it takes to turn out festival winners and the roof would probably get blown off should he win. Unfortunately I don't see that happening, at ten years old I see the younger brigade fighting out the result between them. Penhill I like, he has good form and at aged seven he could still be progressing like Sam Spinner. It looks like he will make the race but with no prep run which would be a slight concern but I just see him running a huge race. The last one I will look at is Supasundae. I am a little surprised he is not favourite if I'm honest. In three runs this year the first two he was beaten by Apple's Jade, which is no disgrace as I think were she to run she would win The Stayers. Last time out was the Irish Champion Hurdle when he beat Faugheen. Yes we know that wasn't the old machine but he still beat him comfortably over a trip well short of what Supasundae really wants on ground he wouldn't be best on. Although it might not have been the very top two milers seen, Faugheen still beat everyone else by four lengths and more. Over 3 miles and hopefully on better ground I expect to see an even more impressive performance.
My prediction and odds.
1. Supasundae 4/1
2. Penhill 10/1
3. Sam Spinner 5/1
Wednesday 28 February 2018
Sunday 25 February 2018
Cheltenham Festival Preview, Queen Mother Champion Chase
Day Two. Queen Mother Champion Chase.
One of my favourite races of the year, watching the speed demons charging round Prestbury Park flying over the fences at top speed.
The actual field set to race is still not confirmed yet, with Willie Mullins still to decide which races Yorkhill and Douvan will tackle if indeed they both make it to the Festival. Yorkhill could turn up in any number of the festival races, so best to wait until we know where he will line up. If it were to be the Champion Chase then he would have to enter calculations, but for me he would be better suited by a bit further and his two races this year have been less than inspiring. Now if Douvan makes it which is by no means certain, then we may have the race of the festival on our hands. No doubt one of the best we have seen the last few years but after his injury in the corresponding race last year, we have to guess how ready he will be. Everyone will have everything crossed in the hope he lines up on the Wednesday.
Odds on favourite and for me one of the bankers of the festival is the beast Altior. Unbeaten over hurdles and fences he is a shoe in. His form is superb going back to one of the best Supreme Novices of recent years, and last year winning the Arkle ensures his course and distance record is also bomb proof. Having only had two runs this year, interrupted by a wind problem means he will turn up a fresh horse too. If Douvan does make it and the Champion Chase is his target Ruby Walsh might have a difficult decision. As good as Douvan is there must be a few questions for him to answer and Min maybe a safer option. He would be no second best if they were both to run and he might be the one who serves it up to the favourite. Having backed him earlier in the year at a decent price I’m confident he will finish in the places.
The other runners are by no means also rans and are very good horses in there own right, I just don’t think they are in the same league as those at the head of the market. Special Tiara has to get a mention as the defending champion, having benefited from Douvan’s demise last year. Although his runs on ground he wouldn’t prefer this year weren’t too bad he is held by others and at eleven years old he isn’t getting better. If he gets good ground then he may outrun his odds but I wouldn’t be expecting him to finish in the first three. Fox Norton would have a chance of running to a place at his best but with how he has run this year you would be backing him on the past and definitely not on current form. Charbel was running a storming race in last years Arkle when he came to grief two out and connections were sure he would have beat Altior. The talent is there but this year his form is not up with the best he will face. Politologue has been superb this year picking up some good prizes, however having been in such good form and race fit he was firmly put in his place by Altior who was returning from his lay off last time out. He was beaten four lengths and that was with Altior just being pushed out, probably value for much more than that. Top Notch has good course form and has run in good races this year but he was very disappointing in the Ascot Chase last time so can’t have him at any price.
The most interesting runner outside of the favourites for me is Great Field. Another from the Mullins yard I hope he will take his chance. Slightly concerning would be the fact he hasn’t raced this year, but he finished last year in great order winning a listed contest by thirty odd lengths. He followed that by stepping up and to a Grade One and hosing in by 11 lengths. If taking his chance I could see him finishing in the places.
My prediction and odds.
1. Altior 8/11
2. Min 10/3
3. Great Field 10/1
One of my favourite races of the year, watching the speed demons charging round Prestbury Park flying over the fences at top speed.
The actual field set to race is still not confirmed yet, with Willie Mullins still to decide which races Yorkhill and Douvan will tackle if indeed they both make it to the Festival. Yorkhill could turn up in any number of the festival races, so best to wait until we know where he will line up. If it were to be the Champion Chase then he would have to enter calculations, but for me he would be better suited by a bit further and his two races this year have been less than inspiring. Now if Douvan makes it which is by no means certain, then we may have the race of the festival on our hands. No doubt one of the best we have seen the last few years but after his injury in the corresponding race last year, we have to guess how ready he will be. Everyone will have everything crossed in the hope he lines up on the Wednesday.
Odds on favourite and for me one of the bankers of the festival is the beast Altior. Unbeaten over hurdles and fences he is a shoe in. His form is superb going back to one of the best Supreme Novices of recent years, and last year winning the Arkle ensures his course and distance record is also bomb proof. Having only had two runs this year, interrupted by a wind problem means he will turn up a fresh horse too. If Douvan does make it and the Champion Chase is his target Ruby Walsh might have a difficult decision. As good as Douvan is there must be a few questions for him to answer and Min maybe a safer option. He would be no second best if they were both to run and he might be the one who serves it up to the favourite. Having backed him earlier in the year at a decent price I’m confident he will finish in the places.
The other runners are by no means also rans and are very good horses in there own right, I just don’t think they are in the same league as those at the head of the market. Special Tiara has to get a mention as the defending champion, having benefited from Douvan’s demise last year. Although his runs on ground he wouldn’t prefer this year weren’t too bad he is held by others and at eleven years old he isn’t getting better. If he gets good ground then he may outrun his odds but I wouldn’t be expecting him to finish in the first three. Fox Norton would have a chance of running to a place at his best but with how he has run this year you would be backing him on the past and definitely not on current form. Charbel was running a storming race in last years Arkle when he came to grief two out and connections were sure he would have beat Altior. The talent is there but this year his form is not up with the best he will face. Politologue has been superb this year picking up some good prizes, however having been in such good form and race fit he was firmly put in his place by Altior who was returning from his lay off last time out. He was beaten four lengths and that was with Altior just being pushed out, probably value for much more than that. Top Notch has good course form and has run in good races this year but he was very disappointing in the Ascot Chase last time so can’t have him at any price.
The most interesting runner outside of the favourites for me is Great Field. Another from the Mullins yard I hope he will take his chance. Slightly concerning would be the fact he hasn’t raced this year, but he finished last year in great order winning a listed contest by thirty odd lengths. He followed that by stepping up and to a Grade One and hosing in by 11 lengths. If taking his chance I could see him finishing in the places.
My prediction and odds.
1. Altior 8/11
2. Min 10/3
3. Great Field 10/1
Cheltenham Festival Preview, Champion Hurdle
With two weeks until the best week of racing begins I will start off by looking at the championship races of all four days.
Day one, The Champion Hurdle.
Without doubt a disappointing renewal in my opinion, many of the contenders you might have thought would be in the line up are not for one reason or the other. Buveur D’Air is quite rightly odds on to retain his crown, if anything he seems to have improved this year. Looking back to the horses that finished behind him in last years race, it would seem that was a stronger test than what he will face this year. The way he has gone through his races this year suggests to me he is more the finished article and he was probably only in second or third gear. As it stands in this moment he is as much as a good thing as you can get and I could see him winning by 5 lengths.
The only spanner that could be thrown into the works is the unknown factor, which Faugheen will turn up if indeed he gets there in one piece. There was the successful comeback after so much time away from the racecourse, followed by the race at Christmas where no answers were found as to the poor showing. Most recently the defeat to Supasundae in the Irish Champion Hurdle, which run over two miles should have suited Willie Mullins’ charge much more than the strong stayer of Jessica Harrington. There hasn’t been that electric jumping and pace he showed when carrying all before him. I would say he could still run to a place and maybe the spring weather and possibly a better surface may help his cause. One thing is for sure, if the old Faugheen turns up it would be something to see him give it up to the favourite as they charge up the hill.
If the enigma Yorkhill runs could he be a player, I’m not so sure but Ruby still remains absolutely sure of the class he has. For me though he has place possibilities at best. Nicky Henderson also has a pretty solid number two for owner J.P McManus in the old warrior, My Tent Or Yours. Now ten years old I was really impressed with the way he battled to victory in his only start this year, beating The New One on ground plenty soft enough for him. With spring ground and the way he always runs super at the festival I definitely see him running to a place and if there were any problems with his stable mate, who knows he could finally land the crown instead of being the bridesmaid again.
At. A big price, one that could outrun his odds for me is John Constable especially if it’s good ground on day one.
My prediction and odds.
1. Buvuer D’Air 4/7
2. My Tent or Yours 10/1
3. John Constable 50/1
Day one, The Champion Hurdle.
Without doubt a disappointing renewal in my opinion, many of the contenders you might have thought would be in the line up are not for one reason or the other. Buveur D’Air is quite rightly odds on to retain his crown, if anything he seems to have improved this year. Looking back to the horses that finished behind him in last years race, it would seem that was a stronger test than what he will face this year. The way he has gone through his races this year suggests to me he is more the finished article and he was probably only in second or third gear. As it stands in this moment he is as much as a good thing as you can get and I could see him winning by 5 lengths.
The only spanner that could be thrown into the works is the unknown factor, which Faugheen will turn up if indeed he gets there in one piece. There was the successful comeback after so much time away from the racecourse, followed by the race at Christmas where no answers were found as to the poor showing. Most recently the defeat to Supasundae in the Irish Champion Hurdle, which run over two miles should have suited Willie Mullins’ charge much more than the strong stayer of Jessica Harrington. There hasn’t been that electric jumping and pace he showed when carrying all before him. I would say he could still run to a place and maybe the spring weather and possibly a better surface may help his cause. One thing is for sure, if the old Faugheen turns up it would be something to see him give it up to the favourite as they charge up the hill.
If the enigma Yorkhill runs could he be a player, I’m not so sure but Ruby still remains absolutely sure of the class he has. For me though he has place possibilities at best. Nicky Henderson also has a pretty solid number two for owner J.P McManus in the old warrior, My Tent Or Yours. Now ten years old I was really impressed with the way he battled to victory in his only start this year, beating The New One on ground plenty soft enough for him. With spring ground and the way he always runs super at the festival I definitely see him running to a place and if there were any problems with his stable mate, who knows he could finally land the crown instead of being the bridesmaid again.
At. A big price, one that could outrun his odds for me is John Constable especially if it’s good ground on day one.
My prediction and odds.
1. Buvuer D’Air 4/7
2. My Tent or Yours 10/1
3. John Constable 50/1
Thursday 22 February 2018
Saturday 24th Views
After last weeks successful first blog where I tipped up Black Corton and Waiting Patiently we move on to Kempton this weekend. I appreciate they weren’t the biggest prices but always happy to pick up a winning double and ante post around 8/1 I’m happy with that. Hopefully this weekend I will continue the winning streak.
The first race to look at is the Betdaq handicap Chase a grade 3 contest over 3 miles. Heading the market is Nicky Henderson inmate Gold Present. Two from two this year his form looks good, particularly last time out in a Listed Chase at Ascot. Some of those in behind have done the form no harm at all, Froden finishing behind Waiting Patiently and Cue Card last weekend and Yale Enki winning the Grade 3 National trial also last weekend. One could think 7/2 is a big price and his chance is obvious, however like last week I’m prepared to take the favourite on. I’m looking for some value and the one I am looking at taking a punt on is Art Mauresque. I think at 12/1 Paul Nicholls’ 8 year old is too big and worth a chance each way with four places available. If you look strictly at his form figures then you might not be impressed, but he has been campaigned constantly in Graded races. In his first appearance this year he tipped up at the first so you can’t take anything from that race. His second though is what interests me, finishing 8 lengths second to a certain Waiting Patiently at Ascot. There were also proven Grade one and two performers behind that day, so for me he looks too big and I’ll be hoping he is on a good day and give me a run for my money.
The Dovecote Novices Hurdle at 3:00 looks likely to be an intriguing race, with a number of contenders having raced only a few times it’s hard to get a real angle on the form. There are three having their first runs over hurdles too, solid handicapper Carntop who progressed to Listed level on the flat. More interesting than him though are Humphrey Bogart from the all powerful Henderson stable, who was a constant group class performer on the flat for Sir Micheal Stoute. Alan King also sends a previous group class horse from the flat in Scarlet Dragon, both of those could be anything if taking to their new challenge over obstacles. I really think anything could happen in this race, but for me to pick one to put my money down on it would have to be the current favourite. At 15/8 Monte Des Avaloirs isn’t much value in a tricky race, however after finishing third in the the Tolworth behind Summerville Boy and Kalashnikov that form couldn’t be any stronger and on known form he would appear the likeliest winner. I will not be remortgaging the house on it though!
The first race to look at is the Betdaq handicap Chase a grade 3 contest over 3 miles. Heading the market is Nicky Henderson inmate Gold Present. Two from two this year his form looks good, particularly last time out in a Listed Chase at Ascot. Some of those in behind have done the form no harm at all, Froden finishing behind Waiting Patiently and Cue Card last weekend and Yale Enki winning the Grade 3 National trial also last weekend. One could think 7/2 is a big price and his chance is obvious, however like last week I’m prepared to take the favourite on. I’m looking for some value and the one I am looking at taking a punt on is Art Mauresque. I think at 12/1 Paul Nicholls’ 8 year old is too big and worth a chance each way with four places available. If you look strictly at his form figures then you might not be impressed, but he has been campaigned constantly in Graded races. In his first appearance this year he tipped up at the first so you can’t take anything from that race. His second though is what interests me, finishing 8 lengths second to a certain Waiting Patiently at Ascot. There were also proven Grade one and two performers behind that day, so for me he looks too big and I’ll be hoping he is on a good day and give me a run for my money.
The Dovecote Novices Hurdle at 3:00 looks likely to be an intriguing race, with a number of contenders having raced only a few times it’s hard to get a real angle on the form. There are three having their first runs over hurdles too, solid handicapper Carntop who progressed to Listed level on the flat. More interesting than him though are Humphrey Bogart from the all powerful Henderson stable, who was a constant group class performer on the flat for Sir Micheal Stoute. Alan King also sends a previous group class horse from the flat in Scarlet Dragon, both of those could be anything if taking to their new challenge over obstacles. I really think anything could happen in this race, but for me to pick one to put my money down on it would have to be the current favourite. At 15/8 Monte Des Avaloirs isn’t much value in a tricky race, however after finishing third in the the Tolworth behind Summerville Boy and Kalashnikov that form couldn’t be any stronger and on known form he would appear the likeliest winner. I will not be remortgaging the house on it though!
Wednesday 14 February 2018
Ascot Chase Weekend
Ascot Chase Weekend
Really looking forward to the Ascot Chase this weekend and think it will be very informative for those heading to the festival. Many questions are being asked and hopefully come Saturday evening we will have some answers.
What Cue Card will we see? Will it be the old people’s favourite, or the laboured disappointing one we have seen this year. If it’s the latter I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s the last time we see him on the racecourse. Now what about the young pretenders at the head of the market. Top Notch is the current ante post favourite at around 7/4, his form is decent but in my opinion he is incredibly short at those odds. Could it be the Henderson factor cramping the prices, maybe so, but on the other hand he could prove me wrong and hose up. Coney Island came back impressively after a year of the track and his defeat of decent yardstick Adrien Du Pont by 9 lengths shows what potential there is. For me I would wait until after the race to have a solid opinion on him, I would like to see a second good race in a row from him after all those months off. Again he could prove to be a real chas,er going places and this adds to what the race delivers. The most interesting runner for me and the one I will be with is Waiting Patiently. I have been really impressed with him, no more so than last time out in a listed race at Kempton. He seemed to get better the longer the race went on, his jumping was electric gaining lengths out of his rivals over each fence. He stayed on strongly and won going away by 8 lengths. That was his second consecutive victory at listed level, and if you go back to January 2017 there is a grade 2 win over a certain Politologue. Frodon is a decent horse and will run his race but is clearly already held on previous form by the favourite.
I expect the winner to come from the first three in the market. I will be cheering on Waiting Patiently and I don’t think anyone would be too upset if Ruth Jefferson was leading him into the winners enclosure.
On the same card earlier in the day is the Reynoldstown Novices Chase. Although I like Ms Parfois and her form is definitely progressive she could be up against it this time. She deserves the step up to grade 2 level after back to back listed successes. Black Corton comes here in fine form too. Last time out reversing previous placings with Elegant Escape in the grade 1 Kauto Start Novice Chase on King George Day. Elegant Escape did the form no harm on Sunday winning a Graduation Chase by 13 lengths and now up there in the betting for the National Hunt Chase at the festival. Currently 11/8 may be a decent price for a previous graded winner and I will definitely be putting him in my lucky 15.
Happy punting.
Really looking forward to the Ascot Chase this weekend and think it will be very informative for those heading to the festival. Many questions are being asked and hopefully come Saturday evening we will have some answers.
What Cue Card will we see? Will it be the old people’s favourite, or the laboured disappointing one we have seen this year. If it’s the latter I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s the last time we see him on the racecourse. Now what about the young pretenders at the head of the market. Top Notch is the current ante post favourite at around 7/4, his form is decent but in my opinion he is incredibly short at those odds. Could it be the Henderson factor cramping the prices, maybe so, but on the other hand he could prove me wrong and hose up. Coney Island came back impressively after a year of the track and his defeat of decent yardstick Adrien Du Pont by 9 lengths shows what potential there is. For me I would wait until after the race to have a solid opinion on him, I would like to see a second good race in a row from him after all those months off. Again he could prove to be a real chas,er going places and this adds to what the race delivers. The most interesting runner for me and the one I will be with is Waiting Patiently. I have been really impressed with him, no more so than last time out in a listed race at Kempton. He seemed to get better the longer the race went on, his jumping was electric gaining lengths out of his rivals over each fence. He stayed on strongly and won going away by 8 lengths. That was his second consecutive victory at listed level, and if you go back to January 2017 there is a grade 2 win over a certain Politologue. Frodon is a decent horse and will run his race but is clearly already held on previous form by the favourite.
I expect the winner to come from the first three in the market. I will be cheering on Waiting Patiently and I don’t think anyone would be too upset if Ruth Jefferson was leading him into the winners enclosure.
On the same card earlier in the day is the Reynoldstown Novices Chase. Although I like Ms Parfois and her form is definitely progressive she could be up against it this time. She deserves the step up to grade 2 level after back to back listed successes. Black Corton comes here in fine form too. Last time out reversing previous placings with Elegant Escape in the grade 1 Kauto Start Novice Chase on King George Day. Elegant Escape did the form no harm on Sunday winning a Graduation Chase by 13 lengths and now up there in the betting for the National Hunt Chase at the festival. Currently 11/8 may be a decent price for a previous graded winner and I will definitely be putting him in my lucky 15.
Happy punting.
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