Day two, Stayers Hurdle.
Day three and it’s the turn of the best staying hurdlers. As there are still a number of horses entered that probably won’t run we can rule a few of them out to start with. Even though she sits at the top of many bookmakers lists, Gordon Elliott has stated Apples Jade will go to the Mares Hurdle. Faugheen is also up there but as expected will run on Tuesday hoping to regain his Champion Hurdle crown.
Topping the betting is Yanworth, slightly surprising to see him reverting back to hurdles after starting the year chasing. He hasn’t done a lot wrong novice chasing, tipping up once but also finishing behind then in front of Willoughby Court. How good that form may be is still questionable for me and I will be against him coming out on top. Sam Spinner is the up and coming potential star. At the beginning of the year he wouldn't have been in many peoples thoughts as a possible winner of the Stayers. A steady start finishing a sound second to race fit rival Court Minstrel in a Chepstow grade two in October. Some of those in behind included Wholestone and Old Guard, who have both gone on to boost the form by winning grade two events. In November he firmly put his name on the map when he hosed up in the Betfair Stayers Handicap Hurdle, beating The Dutchman 17 lengths giving him weight. That was followed by another impressive display when beating L'Ami Serge and Uknowhatimeanharry 2 1/4 and 8 lengths respectively at Ascot. There is no doubt there is untapped potential there and he could be seriously good, my two slight negatives would be he hasn't run since that Ascot race in December and hasn't run at Cheltenham before. To counter one argument it could be said after 3 races in as many months he needed a short break and his planning is spot on, the other we will see on the day.
The aforementioned L'Ami Serge is a solid performer but for me he has slightly under performed this year and looks held by Sam Spinner. What I would say in his favour is his Cheltenham form is absolutely rock solid and if he continues that trend I wouldn't be surprised to see him run a big race but don't see him winning. And what of the old warrior The New One, how does he fit in to this field. Well there is no questioning the attitude and resilience of one of the most popular horses in training. Nigel Twiston-Davies knows what it takes to turn out festival winners and the roof would probably get blown off should he win. Unfortunately I don't see that happening, at ten years old I see the younger brigade fighting out the result between them. Penhill I like, he has good form and at aged seven he could still be progressing like Sam Spinner. It looks like he will make the race but with no prep run which would be a slight concern but I just see him running a huge race. The last one I will look at is Supasundae. I am a little surprised he is not favourite if I'm honest. In three runs this year the first two he was beaten by Apple's Jade, which is no disgrace as I think were she to run she would win The Stayers. Last time out was the Irish Champion Hurdle when he beat Faugheen. Yes we know that wasn't the old machine but he still beat him comfortably over a trip well short of what Supasundae really wants on ground he wouldn't be best on. Although it might not have been the very top two milers seen, Faugheen still beat everyone else by four lengths and more. Over 3 miles and hopefully on better ground I expect to see an even more impressive performance.
My prediction and odds.
1. Supasundae 4/1
2. Penhill 10/1
3. Sam Spinner 5/1
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