So the flat officially returns this weekend with Lincoln day at Doncaster. As well as the main event we also have the Listed Cammidge Trophy first up, followed by the Spring Mile Handicap. The Lincoln is sandwiched between another Listed race in the Doncaster Mile and then the first two year old race the Brocklesbly. There is also a good jumps card at Newbury. The feature there is the Doom Bar Novices Hurdle, a grade two contest over two and a half miles.
The Cammidge is a Listed race over six furlongs. Lancelot Du Lac will turn up and run his race, just as good on turf as the all weather. He has a race like this in his armoury but I find him a little hit and miss and is no value for me at 10/3. Danzeno is a horse I've always liked but very rarely wins which is a concern, he does run in decent races though to be fair. Perfect Pasture was running well at the end of last year with two wins and a second. That last race was at Listed level and he only got beat a length by a Sir Michael Stoute three year old. Blue De Vega is interesting at 10/1. Another who doesn't win a lot, two from eleven but I could see him outrun those odds and grab a place. Ice Age is consistent apart from his reappearance at Lingfield. He likes soft ground and if he can resume last years form he too could run well. I'll be sticking with Perfect Pasture and hoping he continues his good form from last year.
In the Spring Mile Taqdeer heads the betting despite being off the track since May 2016. Having raced only three times connections persist with him and that is no surprise when you look at the the races he has participated in. Horses he had beaten in some of those races were Mustashry, Poet's Word and Prize Money. Will he still retain that ability after such a lengthy absence will be the question, but master trainer John Gosden sends him out now aged 5 so you would think the signs at home are positive. Original Choice for William Haggas and James Doyle should be thereabouts, a solid campaigner at this level his last time out second has been franked by the winner going in again. What's the Story has two wins from six starts including one at Doncaster, he has only raced up to seven furlongs but stayed on well here to win and the booking of Ryan Moore is a positive. Kynren ran up a nice hat trick last year and cannot be ruled out but steps up in class and may find this a little hot. Taqdeer is short enough given the break but could easily outclass his rivals. At the prices I will take the 6/1 on What's The Story with Moore in the plate, he looks the value each way bet with five places available.
Tabarrak is a worthy favourite in the Doncaster Mile after his Newbury Listed win at the end of last year. He finished second to Ballet Concerto before that in a Group 3, that rival also followed up next in another Group 3. Zabeel Prince had looked progressive last year untill he looked a little disappointing in his last race, finishing midfield at Ascot. If he returns to previous form he rates a danger. I see it being between these two for the win and with Tabarrak coming out on to top for Richard Hannon. His form looks solid.
The Lincoln goes off at 3:35 as the main race of the card. Lord Glitters had long been at the top of the markets. Never out of the first two last year since being brought over from France. A mile on ground between good to soft and soft looks right up his street, and everything looks in place for him to go close. He has been replaced at the top of the betting recently by Michael Bell's Fire Brigade, he too looked very progressive last year and the booking of Ryan Moore to ride has seen the money come in floods. That booking alone would tell you connections are very hopeful of a big performance. One I like the look of is Addeybb for William Haggas and James Doyle. Three wins from only five races, I suspect there might be significant improvement in him and his trainer has a good record in the race. By Pivotal he will love the ground conditions, at 7/1 he looks great each way value. Ballard Down looks a good price at 14/1, he hasn't run since July last year but that was a good effort in a class 2 handicap. That was run on ground similar to what he will have on Saturday so there should be no concerns on that front. Master The World finished second in that race and he went on to win the Group 3 Winter Derby last month. Dark Red could surprise a few, he has form that ties him in with Lord Glitters back in October. He was beaten under two lengths and odds of 25/1 could be generous if he returns well for Ed Dunlop, that race was only three starts back. I like Addeybb to go very close and Ballard Down each way with four places available.
Meanwhile the jumpers continue towards the close of their season with a decent card at Newbury. First up is a good quality Class 3 Handicap Chase just over three miles. Dan Skeleton is responsible for Amore Alato, who in February was a good fourth in Scilly Isles Novice Chase behind Top Notch. He was beaten twenty odd lengths but that was a Grade 1 and he will find this Class 3 much easier. Before that he was third of ten In Kempton's Kauto Star Chase another Grade 1. He must go close if continuing in that form. Wotzizname won a couple of handicaps at Class three and four either side of finding a Grade 3 a little tough at Cheltenham. Harry Fry and Noel Fehily usually do well when teaming up together but may have to play second fiddle here. Old boys Sego Success, Rathlin Rose and Shanroe Santos will run with credit again without looking like they could win. Neither will be getting any better at their ages against younger rivals. Thomas Patrick is one of those at six years old, his form leaves him with a bit to find though and may struggle to beat those at the head of the betting. Ice Cool Champs could well be involved in the finish, last time out finishing Second to Coo Star Sivola in a Class 3 at Exeter. That form has well and truly been franked with that winner going on to win the Ultima at Cheltenham last week. This looks like a good opportunity for Amore Alato to get back to winning ways if he continues his good form and I like Ice Cool Champs to grab a place at 11/1.
In the Class 2 Handicap Hurdle next off Oistrakh Le Noir is currently favourite for the 2m2f contest. I'm a little surprised as he has only been contesting Class three and four races, winning last time out in a Class 4. He does go on the ground and gets weight from those closest to him in the betting. One of those is City Dreamer. Alan King has had him running in some good races, as shown two starts back when second to very highly regarded We Have A Dream. Beaten ten lengths he was a further 17 in front of the third home. Eragon De Chaney was fourth in that race and ran well next time in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham. His start before that he finished behind the re opposing Malaya for Paul Nicholls. Malaya ran again after that when no match for impressive Redicean in the Grade 2 Adonis Hurdle at Kempton. What those two have displayed so far seems to me to put them in with a winning chance over the current favourite and the rest, both are currently value each way.
The Doom Bar Mares Handicap Hurdle is a Grade 2 Handicap Hurdle for Novices at 3:15. Warren Greatrex is the market leader here after having won her last two starts in Class 4 company. She has looked good in winning those just doing enough both times and there could be more to come. Kalahari Queen won last time out at Exeter, making all and going on to win comfortably by eight lengths. The third home ran a Nicky Henderson odds on shot close next time out, so there looks like some substance to the form. Emma Lavelle sends out Woolstone One who has won three of her last four races, the last of those was at Listed level with Midnight Tour back in third. That Mare went on to split Benie Des Dieux and Apple's Jade in the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham. She looks a big danger to all off top weight. Nicky Henderson runs Sunshade representing the Queen, having won her first three she finished third of five last time out. That was in a Listed race won by Maria's Benefit in which the second runs here as well in If You Say Run. I like Paul Nicholls' Mare to confirm that form having gone on from that race to finish second next time behind Midnight Tune. If You Say Run has a three pound pull with Midnight Tune for a 2 3/4 length defeat from that race. Anthony Honeyball does really well with his string and I can see her going on and running really well. This looks like it could be a very good race. Woolstone One has a great chance on form, but can she carry top weight to victory. She may well do but in such a competitive race it could tell, Petticoat Tails and Kalahari Queen have the weight advantage and Nicky Henderson's Sunshade has to be respected. If You Say Run must go close and that ties in Midnight Tune and at 8/1 she looks like a nice each way bet. Not a race to get too involve in from a betting point as there are so many with realistic chances.
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