Day one is in the books and it was quite successful. Buveur D’air And Footpad were short price winners to go with Coo Star Sivola and Rathvinden. I’d take four winners any day, Kalashnikov was a close second as well.
So we move on to day two...
First up is The Ballymore Novices Hurdle, and unless you have been on another planet you will know all about “the banker of the week” in Samcro. The debate on which race he should tackle went on longer than you could imagine with opinions divided, right up until the final declarations for The Supreme were made on Sunday. Such is the hype surrounding him, he has been top of the market for all novice races at the festival pretty much all season. Unbeaten, pretty much unchallenged such has his authority been and with no worries with underfoot conditions he really does look unbeatable. At odds on he could easily win like his price would suggest.
So where to look to find some value should the unthinkable actually play out. Next in the market is Willie Mullins first string Next Destination, and with two victories over the very useful Cracking Smart in his last two races he comes here in grand form. At around 7/2 though he is not value to tak on the favourite. Tom George runs Black Op ridden by Noel Fehily who has one win from one ride on him, however I don’t see his form stacking up against the top two who are both grade one winners. One I do like at decent price is Vision Des Flos, he bolted up in his last race on heavy ground giving ten pounds away to the second and third. There is more substance to his case now the Tizzard yard is in better form and he doesn’t have masses to make up on ratings. At 14/1 he is some value to sneak into the places
Willie Mullins has four of the first seven in the betting, will there be some tactics organised to get at Samcro one way or the other? If so I hope to see Robbie Power delivering his mount at the right time to capatilise. One thing Samcro does not have is any course form, but I fear all of this still won’t stop him. He could be something special.
Second up for the day is an intriguing renewal of the RSA. It may seem and sound a little disrespectful to the rest in this field, but I can see this being a two horse race. Al Boum Photo seems held by Monalee, Black Corton is admirably good and a grade one winner who cannot be dismissed lightly and Dounikos has some very solid form too. Elegant Escape ties in very closely with Black Corton and again won’t be far away from him you would think. However the Irish challenges look well held by Monalee on their Flogas form and the vibes have been very good. I suspect they will all have to play second fiddle to Presenting Percy. His form is very good, he has course winning form and will stay forever which will be needed over the three mile trip on soft ground. I wouldn’t like to pick the finishing order but would be surprised to see anything finish in front of Presenting Percy.
The Coral Cup is due off before the big race, and it is the usual head scratcher. Twenty odd go to post and there could be plots planned, and gambles a plenty. So I will look at a few but it won’t be a race I get too involved in from a betting perspective. Top of the list has to be Max Dynamite, who could be dangerously handicapped with just 11-0 to carry. His last two races have been a sixth in the group one Hong Kong Vase, to one of the best flat horses we’ve had recently in Highland Reel and before that a third in The Melbourne Cup. If he displays that kind of form he could be a blot, my one question mark would be very testing ground. A couple I like at decent prizes are River Frost who has form behind Sam Spinner and Supasundae, he should be staying on at the end. The second is Burbank, last time out he finished third to Jenkins and Air Horse One. Nicky Henderson has also tipped him as his value bet so expect to see him primed to do business.
Championship race of the day is the Queen Mother Champion Chase. This won’t take too long, God’s Own really wants better ground as does Special Tiara. Charbel was running a huge race in last years Arkle until crashing out, but this is different company and form is not great. Politologue is s solid horse but just short of real top class. So we’re left with Douvan, Min and Altior. With all the drama around this race throughout the year of will they won’t they, we finally had our answer. No more than hours later Altior was lame! Not even going to guess what might happen next, just going to sit back and let it unfold.
The Cross Country Chase is up next, we all know J.P McManus likes to win this and has his usual army assembled. All four in green and gold have to be taken seriously although Cause Of Causes is no don’t number one in the pecking order. He scooted home last year and then followed that up with an impressive second in The Grand National. Josies Orders partnered by the super Nina Carberry shouldn’t be far away despite being ten now. I will take them on with thirteen year old Bless The Wings. Runner up both of the last two years he was really impressive winning over course and distance in December and at 8/1 he is value for me. At bigger prices I will be interested to see how Urgent De Gregaine and Vicomte Du Seuil perform, both have course and distance form at 16/1 and 33/1 they could squeak a place possibly.
The Fred Winter isn’t one to get too involved in but one I will be backing is Dan Skeltons Nube Negra. He was an 8 length winner last time out and before that a creditable second to Triumph Hurdle favourite Apple’s Shakira.
In the concluding bumper I have always liked Acey Milan and won’t be against him here. He has winning form on soft and heavy ground. I will have a small each way bet on Rhinestone too, but as always this is a very open affair.
Let’s hope Wednesday is as productive as Tuesday. Good luck!
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