A mixed bag from the second day with two winners, and two placed horses advertised each way. Samcro was the banker and won like it, Presenting Percy was just as impressive winning the RSA very easily. I was pleased to pick Elegant Escape to place and he ran a good race without threatening the winner. I hoped Urgent De Gregaine would run well at a decent price and thought he was coming to win the race swinging into the home straight, however Tiger Roll stayed on to strongly in the end.
On to day three then...
The JLT for Novices starts us of and I think this could be quite an open race. Invitation Only is currently favourite, probably due to his grade third last time out in which he finished behind Monalee. That form was done no harm on Wednesday when that rival finished second to the mightily impressive winner. Shattered Love brings Grade one winning form to the table for Gordon Elliott and the in form Jack Kennedy, he could quite easily figure in the finish here. The enigma that is Finians Oscar could be winning this if back to his best or could be beaten at half way if he runs how he has been. I can’t back him until I see some return to form however I can see him running a solid race.
The one I have backed is Terrefort from the bang in form Henderson yard. Last time out he won a grade one from Cyrname with the pair 30 lengths clear of the third. The runner up then went and won the grade two Pendil at Kempton by 11 lengths. He has lots of form on ground soft to heavy so won’t be inconvenienced by track conditions.
The Pertemps Hurdle is a puzzle anyone will do to solve and I’m sure there will be many turning up where this has been the plan all year. Glenloe for Gordon Elliott and Barry Geraghty have obvious chances, three miles was fine for him last time and that bodes well here as it will take some getting. Glenloe’s stable mate Delta Work could run a nice race with a decent weight, he has the right man on board in Davy Russell to bring him into the race at the right time. Having had three winners yesterday they have to figure prominently in any thoughts. Who Dares Wins needs close attention as a horse who has Festival form which is so important and only aids chances. His third last year to Supasundae in the Coral Cup was a great effort and I can see him laid out for this time of year again. He has winning form on heavy ground too. Thomas Campbell has looked classy this year winning a couple of handicaps over three miles, he has fine youngster James Bowen in the plate taking off 3 pounds. I still think he has too much on his task with top weight in such heavy ground. Not a race to have too much money in, I’ll be having small stakes on Delta Work and Who Dares Wins each way.
Un De Sceaux wins the Ryanair simple. Should anything go horribly wrong Cue card can pick up the pieces.
So Sam Spinner is all the rage for the Stayers Hurdle, the feature race of day three. Since his seventeen length demolition at Haydock he headed the market, he followed that up by taking the grade one Long Walk at Ascot from L’Ami Serge and Uknowhatimeanharry. He deserves his place at the top of the betting, my own concern is him never having run at Cheltenham. I am very keen on course and especially Festival form and he has neither. This doesn’t mean he can’t win, tom it just asks new questions of him. I think Uknowhatimeanharry has had his time and other will now progress past him, he is also firmly held by the favourite. Yanworth is a classy animal and it’s very interesting Alan King and the owner have elected to run him back over hurdles. He certainly has the class to trouble everyone involved. He and Supasundae both have form at Cheltenham especially Supasundae’s win last year in the Coral Cup. He is a horse I like and can’t see him out of the first three. The one for me may be a bit of a long shot and that is Penhill. If he had a run this year I’d be all over him, but he hasn’t seen the racecourse since April last year. It’s very hard to win a Championship race after a year off, but at 12/1 he is worth a punt for me. His Albert Bartlett win last year was impressive and those in behind him have gone on to good things this year.
I see it as Penhill, Supasundae and Yanworth. Sam Spinner could make me look stupid but at the prices that’s where I’m going.
The Brown Advisory Plate could be another mine field for punters and like the Pertemps small stakes are the way. Kings Socks has been a bit of a talking horse and has been backed accordingly from 10/1 into around 13/2. I have backed at tens but feel the value now might be gone, so I will throw a few out here at some value. Guitar Pete is one I’d be onside with despite his unseating last time out. He has some solid form and is that all important course and distance winner. Venetia Williams always does well when the ground is boggy and has some history of winning Festival handicaps, so for that reason Willie Boy goes on the list. I’d like Oldgrangewood a bit more if I saw some of Dan Skelton's running better but they look a bit out of form so far this week. So small stakes each way on Guitar Pete and Willie Boy.
Laurina should win the Mares Novices Hurdle as she was Ruby Walsh’s best chance of the week. That in itself says all you need to know.
The final race is the Kim Muir and I like Mall Dini, however in this big field I can’t back him at 5/1 and the same goes for Squouateur who must have a chance. Pendra will always run his race but as per usual off top weight he is up against it. So I am going for some bigger price alternatives starting with Captain Buck's at 40/1, Milanisi Boy at 18/1 and Aubusson at 25/1 and see if we can get some place money.
Happy punting and good luck.
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