Starting the week off with The Supreme and as usual Willie Mullins has the favourite. Getabird is a worthy favourite and could carry on the role of honour from Mullins and Rich Ricci. However I think it could be like last year where Melon was turned over when seemingly the good thing too. Kalashnikov is a horse who has impressed me this year, yes it is a big step up from handicaps but I see him still progressing and that big field win last time out will give him some edge. On that evidence Summerville Boy has a shout as he beat Kalashnikov at Sandown and will like the very soft ground. I expect Mengli Khan to be a better horse than last time out and he could figure in the finish. One that has grown on me especially with the rain we’ve had is First Flow and is still a decent price at 10/1. I think it could be a cracking finish and I will stick with Kalashnikov to come out on top.
The Arkle is now down to just the five runners, but is still full of class, the top three in the betting have been the top three for the last few weeks now. I was growing increasingly more confident with my ante post punt on Sceau Royal however that has been scuppered by injury. Footpad is most likely the winner and cannot see Petit Mouchoir reversing the form from there last meeting. Footpads jumping has been superb and that will give him the edge over Petit Mouchoir who does like to hit one or two. Saint Calvados is the one who could really put the pressure on the favourite, there was no denying he looked impressive in his last two runs and there is no telling at age five how much more there is to come. If the favourite doesn’t win which I expect him too, the Saint Calvados will be the one to take advantage.
The Ultima Handicap Chase is quite an open looking race now we have the final declarations in. Singlefarmpayment heads the market and was quite well fancied for The Cotswold Chase back at Cheltenham in January. He didn’t jump one of the fences well and was soon pulled up, however he has good form around the course and usually runs well. Coo Star Sivola has to have a very good opportunity here with what is relatively a light weight. Nick Williams charge only carries 10-13 with Lizzie Kelly taking off a further 3 pounds with her claim. Other with chances are, Vintage Clouds who will like the ground conditions and Yala Enki who again loves the mud and has winnming form on it. Shantou Flyer at around 25/1 will run his race on soft ground, he also has form at Cheltenham which is a big plus and has run in some decent races. I think he could place at a price especially with some bookmakers paying five places. My tip for this race though is Ramses De Teillee, he has won two of his last four races and finished behind Get On The Yager and Elegant Escape in the other two. All of those races on heavy ground so expect him to deliver another good performance at 14/1.
The next two races on day one could well be shoe ins and don’t really need much insight. Buveur D’Air wins the Champion Hurdle unless the old Faugheen is back. I think My Tent Or Yours could run to a place again, but it’s all about the favourite. The same can be said about Apple’s Jade in The Mares Hurdle, everyone else is fighting for second and third at best.
The National Hunt Chase for the amateurs looks to be a good renewal. Gordon Elliott has the top two in the market with Jury Duty and Mossback, both are solid with regards to form and ground and will run their races. No Comment and Ms Parfois head the home team, although I was a little disappointed in Ms Parfois’ last run. There is no shame in coming second to the forces that are Black Corton and Bryony Frost but would have expected Anthony Honeyball’s inmate to get a little closer than the easy 8 lengths they won by. The one I will be with will be Rathvinden, having competed in grade ones the last three times he could be some value at 7/1 and I expect Willie Mullins to have him primed for this race.
The Close Brothers Novices Handicap closes out day one, and another open race with 6/1 the field. Any Second Now is favourite and if you look at his form you understand why. Horses he has finished second and third to in his last four races include Footpad, Petit Mouchoir and Monalee. He could still be real value at that price. De Plotting Shed has been the name a lot of people fancy for this especially from Gordon Elliott’s yard. My problem with him is although his form has substance to it he seems to struggle winning. Demi Sang has form that ties him in with the favourite and shouldn’t be far away. Testify has run well this year including a grade two event last time out, that was effectively a match race as the second favourite fell at the second. Mister Whitaker has winning form at Cheltenham which is always a plus. Nicky Henderson has two prominent in the betting, Divine Spear and Rather Be. Both would have chances and decent prices to boot. I can’t be against the favourite though, his form is rock solid and it is really interesting they are sticking with Mark Walsh who has partnered him regularly as opposed to J.P McManus’ retained jockey Barry Geraghty.
So there we are, day one in a nut shell and hopefully we will have some winners and money in our pockets.
So there we are, day one in a nut shell and hopefully we will have some winners and money in our pockets.
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